Skip this post if you are not interested in a virus.
I won’t be planning on going anywhere this year, and I’m a microbiologist.
I expect the government will cave in to commercial pressures from travel firms that are mostly not-UK based, and people will go off on holiday. The government really couldn’t care if you became ill on that holiday; you’ll become someone else’s medical burden. What they are concerned about is what people bring back, undoing a lot of good work done.
While vaccination is being rolled out, and this is for any vaccination campaign, the danger is the development of ultra-virulance; a sort of vaccine resistance (its not exactly the same as antibiotic resistance). This is more likely where a vaccine has lower efficacy. With vaccines, we are still flying a bit blind. The manufacturer’s protocols are not based on a carefully optimised approach. They are based on an approach to get the vaccines out as quickly as possible, with some reasonable numbers to back them up. The tweaking of protocols, to maximise innoculation rates, is entirely reasonable. But its all still a bit touch and go. We won’t know for a while (well a year) how long these vaccines confer immunity. The main purpose is to swat down numbers, and stop the pandemic, because we can’t keep innoculating the whole globe every 12 months. We might well break the chain in the UK, but that could be very quickly undone by a single case from overseas.
Its not about being afraid, its about being a little bit patient. So I was disappointed that the tour company’s insert in STHT concerned two tours that, at the moment, you cannot legally attend.
12 months ago, we knew virtually nothing about this virus. In the last 12 months, we have learnt more, but a lot of it has been medical fire fighting, largely repurposing some existing treatments, or resorting to the medically desperate (eg. convalescent plasma, which was originally a last ditch measure against typhus 100+ years ago, and which didn’t work then). There are some new live agent trials starting, and that’s going to get us to better understand infectious dose, which is so important to understand which of the measures we are taking actually work (2 meters, or 6 foot, comes from a paper written in the 1930s, and is used as a response to “how far apart should we stand”), and better understand who is actually at greatest risk (its likely not exactly age and underlying health issues).
So right now, I’d be fairly happy if 2021 UK is a bit like 2020 Australia; more or less normality, except if you want to leave the country. Relatively calm. An overseas holiday can wait to 2022.