If you put 10,000 miles on in a week, maybe £10k would be knocked off, because 15k Mk1 MX5s do sell for about £13-15k right now. But Mk1s are appreciating ; Hagerty a couple of years ago put a 8% CAGR on annual price rises for cars in the UK. In the US, they have seen prices for late NA rise by 130% in the past 5 years.
The UK is the market that seems to least appreciate the Mk1 MX5; NAs are cheaper here than most other major markets. I’d expect international values to somewhat equalise.
KGF have a track (I think thats conservative, looking how much the entry price of a Mk1 has changed) in values, plus or minus 2%, in 5 years, that £23k MX5 (which isn’t the highest value I’ve seen for a Mk1) will turn into £44k, if put away in a garage unused, and assuming annual maintenance.
Now if it the case that a £23,000 MX5, assuming no appreciation, is worth £13,000 after 10k miles and 5 years, that works out, conveniently, at 12% depreciation each year, So if Mk1s are rising by 12% a year, a £23k MX5 thats used quite a bit will be worth in 5 years time…£23k.
The same won’t be true for the second had ex-demo ND MX5. 5 year old base spec NDs seems to be worth £12-14k.
It might be moot after 2030. I’m not sure what direction the classic car market will take then. Petrol will still be availabl for many many years (and there will be replacements) but it will get more expensive (despite declining demand, RBOB gasoline futures are putting a price of $2.672/gal by December 2023, rising to $4.770 (2023 USD) by January 2028) and probably harder to find as filling stations reduce the number of pumps (there has been a long term decline in filling stations in the UK that long predates electrification). I can see some cars take a nose dive in values, mainly at the cheaper end, as it simply won’t be worth the effort to fuel up these cars, or install a home fuel tank (more people will be applying for the petroleum licence to store upto 275 liters of petrol at home). Quite possibly all MX5 values will fall off a cliff.
Irrelevant to all of us of course, as haven’t we all taken a pledge to be buried in our MX5s?