the next MX5 will be hybrid, probably 
https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/mazda-mx-5-2023-la-prochaine-generation-du-roadster-sera-hybride-10469400.html
https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/mazda-mx-5-2023-la-prochaine-generation-du-roadster-sera-hybride-10469400.html
Assume that Europe will largely follow the targets set by the UK, following the 2021 Glasgow Summit; ban sale of new ICE vehicles by 2030, with an extension for hybrids to 2035. Assume each MX5 generation lasts ~10 years.
A 2023 MX5 would then be due replacement by 2033 at the latest. A hybrid MX5 cannot be replaced by another hybrid.
Mazda doesnât own any hybrid technology. Its all licenced from Toyota. Moreover, a hybrid MX5 demands a unique RWD hybrid setup, unlikely to be shared with another platform.
Around 30-35,000 MX5s are sold each year, at most. Tooling up for a new hybrid setup will mean the car is less profitable at the start of the run, than the end of the run. But very little profit can be realised from the hybrid technoogy, as its a bit of a lame duck technology, with no future beyond 2035. Its even more challenging, considering that even at 30,000 sales a year, Mazda still needed money from a partner, FCA, to stump up the upfront costs on developing even a conventionalm not particuarly innovative, petrol car.
An alternative scenario:
The 2023 MX5 will be a heavily revised ND model, with a conventional petrol engine
A full electric variant will be launched alongside it, largely sharing the same structure, in the same way BMW sells a full EV MINI. It will be dynamically flawed (relatively heavy, weight distribution not ideal). It wonât sell in large numbers, but those that sell, will sell on the basis of the MX5 image etc. Where else are you going to get a full EV sportscar for ~ÂŁ35k. Quite possibly new, pure EV entrants will appear @2025 from companies such as MG, and these might rob some share.
The extended life ND variant comes to an end ~2028, with most of the upfront EV investment already paid off. Allows transition to a pure EV model which blows the socks off the competition, such as it is. It might look similar to the outgoing model, allowing retention of the older petrol model for some markets which might continue petrol sales beyond 2030 (eg. US), call it âMX5 Classicâ or similar.
Another, nightmare scenario. The 2023 MX5 is based on the 2021 Toyota GT86 platform, as a hybrid. MX5 motifs such as the PPF will be gone. Lift the bonnet and peel off the stickers, and you see a Toyota Yaris engine cam cover. The Mazda will be lagely regarded as the convertible version of the Toyota, and Mazda, very much like Subaru, will be the junior partner. This arrangement will soldier on, through a midlife facelift, to 2035, whereupon a new joint Toyota-Subaru-Mazda model appears, or the partnership ends, and allows Mazda to launch a high risk EV sportscar, while at the same time re-establishing MX5 values, which by then, everyone has forgotten.
Or, Mazda focuses on the Chinese market, as per latest annual report. This doesnât work out as the Chinese like roomy cars, not 2 door SUVs with a gimmicky rear stumpy suicide door. By 2023, Mazda has seen 3 years of declining sales as its traditional export markets struggle to recover from the COVID recession. An ambitious Chinese company, with low exposure in the North American market, makes a bold swoop to invest in Mazda. This is not the first time for Mazda, given how Ford previously saved it. Such a company could be SAIC, which by then, has had a solid 10 years experience in developing its own EV technology, which is marketed in European markets under the MG brand, through dull but competent small SUVs. MG has been frustrated by low sales of the MG E-Motion EV coupe, which while good, is perceived by the market as an inferior quality Chinese product. Mazda will allow SAIC entry into the US market, through the Mazda branding. SAICâs British engineers in Warwickshire are genuinely excited to work with their counterparts in Irvine and Yokohama. The next MX5 no longer has to be developed on a shoestring, as the Chinese shovel money into the project in order to establish themselves as a true global player in the car industry. Mazda Frankfurt team gets worried. Next MX5 is part of a family that inclides a premium priced MG coupe, boldly priced unapologetically above the Mazda, and market perception is that the MG is a rebadged Mazda, rather than the Mazda being a rebadged MG.
Who knows.
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