A Glimpse of the Future? The 2030 MX-5?

A snippet from Mazda Japan’s YouTube channel appears to give us a sneak peak at an electric replacement for the MX-5!

The presentation concludes with a segment focusing on the MX-5 and between clips of earlier generations, a couple of brief glimpses of a virtual render of the “Vision Study Model” that may hint at the future!

Link to video Redirecting...

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Presentation (approx last 5 minutes)

Carbuzz link

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Vapourware to be fair. In other news, Mazda invents a new colour called red.

The key news is not yet another coupe concept/render (2017 RX Vision Coupe? Now called “Vision Study Concept”), but the announcement regarding the formation of 3 companies charged with the delivery of road ready drives by 2027-2028 (5-6 years). Interesting is the suggestion Mazda might get into battery manufacture.

This is a $11 bn investment, purely in R&D. This follows the failure of the MX-30. Mazda needs to establish its credentials as an innovator. It spent too much on Skyactiv technology, funding a white elephant line of internal combustion engines, just as other manufacturers abandon new designs (its generally considered that JLR made an enormous error developing the Ingenium engine).

High risk strategy; they are not following Honda and Subaru in partnering with one of the big car makers.

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Mazda have been partnered with Toyota for several years… :man_facepalming:

Perhaps Mazda did, but after 4 years of ownership I still marvel at the efficiency of my 2013 Mazda6 Sport’s 2-litre skyactiv-G petrol engine. How a big comfy car like that (2 inches longer than my old 5-series beemer and just as sporty to drive) can deliver 45mpg on mostly urban motoring is amazing.

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They also partnered with Ford, Fiat, but like Toyota, that partnership does not extend to future BEV product. This management announcement, announced on Mazda’s Investors site, outlines a new strategy that does not involve Toyota. Industry partnerships come and go.

No need a face palm smilie.

Toyota’s practical contact with Mazda is pretty much restricted to US market CX50s, which are built in Alabama. The quarterly presentations that accompanied the article you linked discloses that Mazda is facing manning difficulties in Alabama, with poor staff retention. The line is mixing Corolla and CX50 assembly.

Mazda announced that it believes the current world order is collapsing (see the announcement video you linked to, in the opening lines), and with it globalisation. Its response is to build its own IP, with a Japanese supply chain (circle the wagons). Clearly, this IP will not interlock with Toyota technologies, because Mazda was describing in their presentation the creation of technologies unique to themselves.

When you look at the transcript, its quite grim reading, not sunny uplands. Its very much on point with respect to ESG. Mazda are doing this because they have to. I think over the next few years, particularly how they were citing SUV models, they will be very focused on revenue growth, and in particular, models that generate revenue. Unless the MX5 moves significantly upmarkt, I don’t see room for it, in the crumbling world Mazda is painting.

Toyota’s own commitment to sharing technologies with Mazda is now doubtful, given the announcement by the company last month, when it suddenly stopped 30 EV projects. Toyota’s warchest for EV R&D spend, $38bn, squashes Mazda’s allocated spend of $11bn. I’m suspecting that Toyota is not going to give Mazda access to e-TNGA.

Interesting views between Mazda and Toyota. Mazda thinks 25-40% of its sales in 2030 will be EV. Toyota thinks it needs a minimum of 30% in 2030 just to stay competitive.

Toyota are looking at Tesla; Tesla are winning on costs. e-TNGA allows EV and ICE to share the same assembly line, but that strategy seems now dead in the water, given how Tesla are driving down costs on their EV only lines.

Meh. Jaguar was getting 40mpg with V8s 15 years ago (albeit with a light throttle).

I suppose I was really referring to Skyactiv-X engines, which don’t have anything to do with the MZR-Duratec engine in your Mazda6. Skyactiv-X is undoubtedly very clever, and maybe the final hurrah for ICE, but this is a fundemental change in engine technology that, at most, will see only 8 years action, before fading away. In those markets still allowing ICE after 2030, are their consumers really going to care about a high revving petrol engine with diesel characteristics? The typical markets will likely include Sub-Saharan countries, parts of Central America, and places like Afghanistan.

What about China, South East Asia, The Middle East and North Africa? These are huge markets for ICE and im not aware there are any concrete pledges to ban ICE within these jurisdictions. Whilst many of these governments will promote EV Infrastructure in the next 10 years there will still be a place for efficient ICE cars amongst the populations dont you think? This will for sure maintain a market for technologies like skyactive.

In the Mazda presentation, the Mazda CEO type specifically highlighted China as a major adopter of EV.

North Africa; that’s Egypt (poor country), Libya(failed state, has Benghazi gotten rid of its warlord yet?), Algeria (verging on failed state), Tunisia (beach holidays). Not huge spending states. The Middle East (Saudi Arabia) is not a big market for Mazda, unless they start making 6 wheel falconry cars…

South East Asia; Thailand; pretty much bans (extremely high import duty in the Land of Smiles) anything not made in Thailand (which is why I can’t take my MX5 there, all used car imports are banned). And they love smokey diesel pickups. Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipines; pretty much the same. Singapore; the size of the Isle of Wight.

Of the 40% of sales that are ICE after 2030, I would bet 80% will be kingcab BT-50s that come with a choice of Isuzu diesels, one of which has a near 40 year history (yes, Mazda doesn’t make the engines for its best known truck).

ICE might drag for a couple more years. But efficient, complex, strange ICE?

And 60% of sales volume does not equate to 60% of sales revenue; you see what the price is of a BT-50 is in Bangkok? Its cheap. The two key markets Mazda highlighted were the US and China, which is why the CX series was pushed so much in the presentation.

Now whats the halo car they put on the cover of the Q2 results? Ah yes, a svelte CX-60, that’s borderline BMW ugly. Very slabby sided, but that’s where they see the gravy is.

In many developing markets, the top seller is a rhd used export from Japan.

I feel like you are dismissing vast swathes of the ‘non western’ world as being too poor or too into something else. Im not sure thats quite true to be honest. That aside I think the point i was trying to highlight is that these are the very people who will buy into efficient ICE as the price of oil increases and they either cant afford EV’s or dont have sufficient home infrastructure. Im not sure therefore its such a waste of investment was my point.
I live in the Middle East and Falconry cars for the elite aside the vast majority of the populations in the GCC are not rich Sheikhs but expats who are price sensitive to changes in the gas prices (even though cheap by western standards). Japanese designed cars are also highly thought of here.

My understanding is that the NE/ MK 5 will still have the ICE engine which will be an advanced version of the current sky-active with more leaning towards the “Compression Ignition” aspect. Therefore, working on the diesel principle to give more economy and reduced emissions.

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Very true, 90% of the UAE are not from the UAE. But 80% of them work on building sites, or in janitorial work on barely subsistance wages, with most money being sent home. Of the other Expats, they are mostly there on 3-4 year contracts. The Middle East is not their home, and most plan to retire somewhere cheap. Of course, I met a few old hands who had been there since the 50s and would dribble on about how dry heat is not so bad. Certainly, in healthcare, a job in the ME is essentially professional suicide.

But I lived in the ME, and expats really didn’t care what they got to drive. Japanese yes, because the local agents were hopeless in maintaining anything from Europe. I see a lot of Chinese cars are now sold or promoted there. The biggest market is Iran, and substantially, their domestic sales are around versions of 20 year old PSAs and Kias. Cheapness and nationalism are the main drivers of sales there (why else did anyone buy a Pekyan Hillman?)

The world is changing, largely due to globalisation. Mazda, in their brief think, globalisation is over, so parts of the world will face a reversal in falling costs.

From their last annual report:

image

“Other” is essentially ASEAN countries and Australia. Sales in South America and Africa are very small. Vietnam, Indonesia are growing markets (more developed markets like Thailand are now buying less Mazdas). But you saw the news of the earthquake in Indonesia the other day. Its a growing market, but as a country, it still has relatively poor infrastructure. Even a country like Thailand still sells petrol in old whiskey bottles. So there is an incongruity in that, in proposing a very complicated engine (Skyactiv-X) is going to become the go to Mazda unit in those countries, where currently, engines that are barely Euro I do the trick as far as consumers (they want reliability, and cheap repairs by the backstreet garage). Their fuel is often cheap as governments step in to subsidise it, as the populatons are still substantially rural/agarian. Where is the incentive to jump 4 generations in engine, where maintenance requirements will be much more (garages will need to invest in the diagnostic equipment that currently isn’t really needed).

By 2030, the technology gap in the world will be sharply divided between developing and developed (not liking your insinuation about “West”, I was including Japan and Korea in my considerations). I’m not sure ICE cars in the 2030 developing world will essentially be 2025 latest tech. More like 2000-2010 tech. There are many countries that are still not bothered about catalytic converters or airbags; so much for consumer concerns about safety there.

More likely they will be in the process of changing from early 21st century tech, to EV, skipping steps, which has happened elsewhere (viz China, which went from steam trains and dirty diesels to Maglev, skipping the West European standards of modern trains). Most of them are command economies, or crony economies, making infrastructure decisions much more easy (no planning appeals).

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Way to go on the downer.

This post was merely to highlight that a small coupe/convertible still factors in Mazda’s future thinking regardless of what actually is created and that EV is (as with all manufactures) the direction of travel.

and like the Vision Coupe which was, as with all Mazda concept vehicles, an expression of their design language - of which many concept elements on it filtered into real design on the ND & RF, Mazda 3, Mazda 6, CX-5 etc, the Vision Study model may very well do the same, it already demonstrates some evolution of the current range in it’s presentation.

It is great to see!

It wasn’t about what you have gone on to project as doom for Mazda and being downbeat about their existing and future strategy, see the positives!

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It is a discussion though (no need for face palm smilies).

Transcript:

Nothing in there about a detailed product road map, though references to CX series SUVs,

From that video

From the presentation documents

Scalable EV platform (like most others), flat, floor battery. But the coupe shows a back bone chassis, and battery at the back. Its vapourware

Drives interest, sure.

Facts v Opinions… You are entitled to your own opinions but you are not entitled to make up your own facts… I work in Construction in the UAE and whilst your 90% of the population are expats is correct, the fact that 80% of them work in construction or janitorial roles is most definitely not correct. that would be 7.2m people from a population of roughly 10m. I would say at best there is 700k people in Construction and Facilities Management. Nor are they all on subsistence wages that would provide only the bare essentials of life.

Anyway we could go on about this all day. You seem to have a bit of a downer on Mazda which is your opinion and you are entitled to it. I guess time will tell…

Some concept renders have appeared about a possible electric Mx-5. Don’t know about everyone else, but this is the only car I’ve seen recently that would tempt me to get an EV. If it ends up looking like this beautiful creature, I would buy one yesterday! What about everyone else?
Screenshot 2022-11-23 121054

Imagine if those little slitty lights popped up at night and closed rapidly on impact? Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!!

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